Thursday, May 22, 2014

2014 Challenge Cup Progression Scenarios

Confusion reigns at the AFC.

With two full match days now behind us its time to assess the damage and weigh the chances each of the final eight participants have of progressing to the Semifinal stage. Earlier today, there was some confusion regarding three-way ties. So much so, that even the official Asian Cup account didn't know what was going on (see above)


Full List of Scenarios after the jump....



Group A


Palestine is the only team that has full control of its destiny in Group A. For them, only an epic meltdown could prevent them from their second straight semifinal berth. Myanmar and Kyrgyzstan cannot win Group A but are still in the running for the second place spot. The only way Palestine doesn't advance out of the group is if Myanmar wins and Palestine somehow conspire to lose by a three goal margin.

Palestine will progress as Group winners with: 
  • A win vs. Maldives 
  • A draw vs. Maldives 
  • A one goal loss vs. Maldives AND a Myanmar win vs. Kyrgyzstan 
Palestine will advance as Runners-Up with: 
  • A Myanmar loss vs. Kyrgyzstan 
  • A Myanmar draw vs. Kyrgyzstan 
  • A two goal loss vs. Maldives
Maldives will advance as Group winners with: 
  • A two goal win vs. Palestine 
Maldives will advance as Runners-Up with: 
  • A one goal win vs. Palestine 
  • A draw vs. Palestine AND a Kyrgyzstan win vs. Myanmar 
  • A loss vs. Palestine AND a Kyrgyzstan win vs. Myanmar by less than four goals. 
Myanmar will advance as Runners-Up with:
  • A win vs. Kyrgyzstan AND a Maldives loss/draw vs. Palestine 
  • A draw vs. Kyrgyzstan AND a Maldives loss/draw vs. Palestine  
Kyrgyzstan will advance as Runners-Up with: 
  • A 4-0 win vs. Myanmar AND a Maldives loss AND fewer red/yellow cards 
  • A 5-1, 6-2, 7-3... win vs. Myanmar 
  • A win vs. Myanmar by five goals or more

Group B



This is the more straightforward of the groups. Laos are already out and can only affect this group as a spoiler in their final game against Afghanistan. Turkmenistan have dug themselves a hole with their disastrous performance today; anything less than a win will see them exit the tournament a week earlier than expected.  

Afghanistan will advance as Group winners with: 
  • A win vs. Laos
  • A draw vs. Laos AND a draw in the Turkmenistan-Philippines match
Afghanistan will advance as Runners-Up with: 
  • A draw vs. Laos AND a Turkmenistan win vs. Philippines 
  • A draw vs. Laos AND a Philippines win vs. Turkmenistan 
  • A loss vs. Laos AND a draw in the Turkmenistan-Philippines match
Philippines will advance as Group winners with:
  • A win vs. Turkmenistan by a 2+ goal margin more than an Afghan victory over Laos
  • A win vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan loss vs. Laos 
  • A win vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan draw vs. Laos 
  • A draw vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan loss vs. Laos 
  • A draw vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan draw vs. Laos- provided they score more in their draw 
Philippines will advance as Runners-Up with:
  • A win vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan win vs. Laos 
  • A draw vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan win vs. Laos 
  • A draw vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan draw vs. Laos 
  • A loss vs. Turkmenistan AND an Afghanistan loss vs. Laos by a greater margin
Turkmenistan will advance as Group winners with: 
  • A win vs. Philippines AND an Afghanistan draw vs. Laos 
  • A win vs. Philippines AND an Afghanistan loss vs. Laos 
Turkmenistan will advance as Runners-Up with:
  • A win vs. Philippines AND an Afghanistan win vs. Laos